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ON THU These storms should move into western and southwest IL in the next several hours. These could get into western parts of the CWA so will have some chance pops in the west this morning.
However, all models seem to indicate this area will not travel very far and should dissipate during the morning hours. The associated boundary will then slowly lift northeast as a warm front through the CWA, and though convergence along this boundary will be weak, some isolated showers or thunderstorms will remain possible in the early afternoon.
By late afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours, the warm front will remain across the central part of the CWA so the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue during the evening and overnight hours.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with some areas in the west and south getting to around Overnight lows will also be warmer as most of the CWA will be in the warm sector overnight.
Though most recent models are lifting the boundary further to the northeast, some chance pops Thurs and slight chance pops remain in place at least over the northeastern portions of the CWA from Thursday night through Friday night. Pops increasing somewhat for Saturday as models are collapsing the ridge somewhat as a wave moves over the ridge and into the Ohio River Valley.
Though the precip chances are scattered at best and low confidence Models have also shown consistency with mb temps in the C range through Sunday. Forecast dwpts into the low to mid 70s may be over representing llvl RH enhancement from widespread precip in the models that may not quite come to fruition as widespread.
Todays heat indices are more borderline for Heat Advisory criteria Main concern is with potential for fog. Latest short-range guidance suggesting the KSPI-KCMI corridor most at risk for significant fog, as a weak frontal boundary is draped in that area and dew points are pooling along it.
However, the increase in clouds near KSPI may help mitigate the fog from getting out of control. Will also need to watch for convection developing along the front in northern Missouri over the next few hours.
General thought is that this should stay southwest of KSPI and will not mention at this time. In the longer range of the TAF, concern is with timing of convection late Wednesday afternoon and evening. NAM is faster and much further south with storms moving through as early as Z, while the latest GFS favors the evening hours, with other guidance much more widely scattered but in the evening.
GOES Earlier convection has pushed well to the east and skies are now mostly clear in our area, although some rogue thunderstorms have recently developed along an outflow boundary across Clark County. Not any appreciable change in temperature on either side of the front, but dew points are slightly lower to the north.
Front is not expected to make much additional headway overnight.
Currently think the precip should stay to our southwest, but will see an increase in clouds after midnight across the southwest CWA. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop immediately along the boundary within a narrow uncapped instability axis. Further east, the air mass across much of central Illinois remains capped in the wake of convection that moved across the area earlier in the day.
Once daytime instability is lost, will go with a dry forecast across the board overnight. Forecast soundings suggest low-level moisture will remain high, with both the MET and MAV guidance indicating reduced visbys.
Based on this guidance and a persistence forecast from the past couple of nights, have included patchy fog after midnight. Our area will still remain along the storm track over the building upper level ridge, so despite lowering PoPs below the likely category, chances will remain in most areas, with lowest chances southwest of Springfield to Effingham.
The theme of higher storm chances in N-NE Illinois will continue for the balance of the extended forecast, as the upper ridge and dome of hot air build from southwest to northeast.
The storm track appears to generally follow the dm mb height line into this weekend. We kept a narrow channel of chance PoPs across our N-NE counties from Thursday to Saturday, with minor shifts east and west during that time.
Slight chances could extend as far south as Rushville to Lincoln to Mattoon, but the building dome of heat should provide enough mid-level capping to limit the southward extent of storms. Model differences in the Sunday to Tuesday time frame have prompted a continuation of periodic slight chance PoPs as a cold frontal boundary tries to push into the dome of hot air.
The 12z runs have limited the forward progression of the front into IL on Sunday night and Monday, when previous runs indicated an air mass change for less hot conditions on Monday. Now the heat may linger as long as Tuesday with the only hints of relief coming for areas north of I Heat index readings from Wednesday to Sunday will climb to into the 95F to F range at peak heating, which could be locally limited by any pop-up thunderstorms each afternoon.
Am a little concerned that we may be dealing with convection across northern KS for much of the evening.
A 00Z objective surface analysis suggests a weak trough axis or boundary has laid over more west to east into northeast KS and the outflow from convection over north central KS will likely help better define this boundary.
Once the low level jet increases this evening, there could be enough lift along this boundary for scattered storms to fester through much of the night. This seems to be the idea anyways from the HRRR.